Demographic Collapse in Italy? Or, Steady State?
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A Steady State Economy for Italy
Italy has been called "The Poor Man of Europe" simply because growth is slowing. The name-calling is based on the assumption that economies are supposed to grow forever. In a finite planet, the assumption is unreasonable. From the IT_L20 Model , Italy is forecast to be approaching a Steady State Economy after 2045 (see the graphic above). Why is this happening and is it a Success or a Failure? Notes Run the ITL20 Model in R-code ( here ). For more of my post son Italy, see the Blog Roll here . Wikipedia Links The Economy of Italy a highly developed social market economy . It is the third-largest national economy in the European Union , the 8th-largest economy in the world by nominal GDP , and the 12th-largest by PPP-adjusted GDP The Economy of Fascist Italy the economy in the Kingdom of Italy during the Fascist period . The Politics of Italy conducted through a parliamentary republic with ...
World-System Collapse Theory
The video above describes the Growth-and-Collapse prediction from the The Limits to Growth model (based on ten data point calibrations**): The WL203 Model baed on data from 50 time points and 14 indicator variables (see below) makes similar projections. W1=(Growth-LP) is the Growth -Living Planet Controller. W2 =(LP=P.Wheat+OIL-TEMP) is the Global Temperature Controller. W3 =(P.Oil.+P.Wheat.-OIL-EF) is the Ecological Footprint Controller. Notes ** The ten data points are 5 initial conditions and 5 "normal" parameters e.g., q(t*) = Q(t*) / N(t*). The rest of the functional forms (calculated from graphs) are guesstimated. You can experiment with the WL203 Model here . You can experiment with the World1 Limits to Growth Model here (this is a State Space Dynamic Components version of the model). For more information about data sources and how the State Space models were constructed, see the Boiler Plate . WL203 Measurement Model WL203 System Matrix Wikipedi...
Afghanistan: Graveyard of Empires
Notes Wikipedia Links American Decline Graveyard of Empires The Revenge of Geography New Strategy in Afghanistan War in Afghanistan (2001-2021) Soviet-Afghan War (1979-1989) Anglo-Afghan Wars Civil Wars Afghan Civil War (1989-1992) Afghan Civil War (1992-1996) Afghan Civil War (1996-2001) Economy of Afghanistan History of Afghanistan Politics of Afghanistan Government of Afghanistan Geography of Afghanistan Taliban Mujahideen Asymmetric Warfare Counterinsurgency Nation Building Afghanistan AF_L20 Model The model is an unstable Moving Average model that can be stabilized (instructions in the code). YouTube Videos Graveyard of Empires: DOCUMENTARY Geographic Map
US Hegemonic Collapse: Danger to the World System?
Carlos Lozada, a columnist for the New York Times, recently wrote an opinion piece America Has Become a Dangerous Nation . The danger is that, when the World-System Hegemonic Leader starts collapsing, the System is in danger. The video above puts the 2026 US-Iran War in the context of Hegemonic Decline. This video reviews Lozada's piece in the NY Times which puts the Trump II Administration in the context of the literature on American Decline . Notes Readings Kennedy, P. (1988) The Rise and Fall of Great Powers Gilpin, R (1981) War & Change in World Politics Wikipedia Links American Decline Asymmetric Warfare Counterinsurgency Nation Building USL203 Model MAGA News Articles N. Y. Times, March 2, 2026 How Trump Went to War USL20 Model1 W-Input USL20 Model1 BAU
