World-System Steady State Or Collapse

A recent article in the UK Express ( here ) warned that Italy is facing a Demographic Collapse  that may lead to Economic Collapse and eventually  Societal Collapse . The video above explains some of the factors at work and can be summarized in a directed graph: The video argues that (1) economic conditions are not created enough jobs to justify family formation and (2) Policy measures design to restrict migration to Italy ( the 2105 European Migrant Crisis ). However, the ITL20 BAU Population model shows that Italy's population stop growing but, after the turn of the Century, returned to the Attractor Path . However, Italy's Economy has a number of systemic problems that are being misdiagnosed as   Economic Collapse  but are actually the result of the Approaching Steady State . Notes You can run the  ITL20 Model  in  R-code  ( here ). For more of my posts see  Blog Roll: Italy ,  the  Boiler Plate  and the I...

Italy has been called The Sick Man of Europe  simply because growth is slowing. The name-calling is based on the assumption that economies are supposed to grow forever. In a finite planet, the assumption is unreasonable. From the IT_L20 Model , Italy is forecast to be approaching a Steady State Economy after 2045 (see the graphic above). Why is this happening and is it a Success or a Failure ? The simplest answer is that overall growth rates for the  IT_L20 Model  are stable (Largest eigenvalue < 1.0--see below). A stable economy will always reach a steady state. If the historical controllers are also stable (and they are in Italy), then the steady state can be maintained indefinitely. However, the relationships between the indicators in the historical controllers are quite complicated and will be a challenge for Italian politics. Consider the following expansion of the Kaya Identity  as a Directed Graph : There are lots of questionable effects within the mo...

The video above describes the Growth-and-Collapse prediction from the  The Limits to Growth  model (based on ten  data point calibrations**): The WL203 Model  baed on data from 50 time points and 14 indicator variables (see below) makes similar projections. W1=(Growth-LP) is the Growth -Living Planet Controller. W2 =(LP=P.Wheat+OIL-TEMP) is the Global Temperature Controller. W3 =(P.Oil.+P.Wheat.-OIL-EF) is the Ecological Footprint Controller. Notes ** The ten data points are 5 initial conditions and 5 "normal" parameters e.g., q(t*) = Q(t*) / N(t*). The rest of the functional forms (calculated from graphs) are guesstimated. You can experiment with the WL203 Model here . You can experiment with the World1 Limits to Growth Model here  (this is a State Space Dynamic Components version of the model). For more information about data sources and how the State Space models were constructed, see the Boiler Plate . WL203 Measurement Model WL203 System Matrix Wikipedi...

Notes Wikipedia Links American Decline Graveyard of Empires The Revenge of Geography New Strategy in Afghanistan War in Afghanistan (2001-2021) Soviet-Afghan War (1979-1989) Anglo-Afghan Wars Civil Wars Afghan Civil War (1989-1992) Afghan Civil War (1992-1996) Afghan Civil War (1996-2001) Economy of Afghanistan History of Afghanistan Politics of Afghanistan Government of Afghanistan Geography of Afghanistan Taliban Mujahideen Asymmetric Warfare Counterinsurgency Nation Building Afghanistan AF_L20 Model  The model is an unstable Moving Average model that can be stabilized (instructions in the code). YouTube Videos Graveyard of Empires: DOCUMENTARY Geographic Map  

Carlos Lozada, a columnist for the New York Times, recently wrote an opinion piece  America Has Become a Dangerous Nation . The danger is that, when the World-System Hegemonic Leader starts collapsing, the System is in danger. The video above puts the 2026 US-Iran War in the context of Hegemonic Decline. This video reviews Lozada's piece in the NY Times which puts the Trump II Administration in the context of the literature on American Decline . Notes Readings Kennedy, P. (1988) The Rise and Fall of Great Powers Gilpin, R (1981) War & Change in World Politics Wikipedia Links American Decline Asymmetric Warfare Counterinsurgency Nation Building USL203 Model MAGA News Articles N. Y. Times, March 2, 2026 How Trump Went to War USL20 Model1 W-Input USL20 Model1 BAU