World-System Steady State Or Collapse

  Typically, when commentators talk about Policy Actions such as the UK Climate Change Act of 2008 , the assumption seems to be that governments will never do enough and that the more aggressive the policy targets the better . Seldom are the effects on the political-economic system taken into consideration and seldom is consideration given to stabilizing the political-economic system before policy measures are enacted. In the graphic above, I have plotted two forecasts for UK1  (the dominant state variable in the UKL20 BAU Model ). The top graphic shows system collapse in the Business-As-Usual ( BAU )  model  which, as estimated from the World Development Indicators , is unstable. The lower graphic shows the stabilized version of the BAU model reaching a steady-state after 2046 (the model is stabilized by reducing growth rates). My next question is whether the  Climate Change Act of 2008  destabilized the system. In the Notes below, I present the U...

  In an earlier post, Steady State Economy for Switzerland ,  You can run both positive and negqtive shocks to the  CH_LM  (Late Modern) model   on my Google Site. Notes The best forecast (using the  Akaike Information Criterion ) is the  CH_LM  (Late Modern) model driven by Western Europe (the dashed red line in the graphic above, state-space model presented below). Notes Wikipedia Links Economy of Switzerland   a  highly developed   free-market economy . The Swiss economy has ranked first in the world since 2015 on the  Global Innovation Index  and third in the 2020  Global Competitiveness Report .  According to  United Nations  data for 2016, it is the third richest  landlocked country  in the world after  Liechtenstein  and  Luxembourg . Politics of Switzerland   a  federal state  with  representative democracy . History of Switzerland   t he  ...