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Showing posts with the label Population FOrecast

Demographic Collapse in Italy? Or, Steady State?

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A recent article in the UK Express ( here ) warned that Italy is facing a Demographic Collapse  that may lead to Economic Collapse and eventually  Societal Collapse . The video above explains some of the factors at work and can be summarized in a directed graph: The video argues that (1) economic conditions are not created enough jobs to justify family formation and (2) Policy measures design to restrict migration to Italy ( the 2105 European Migrant Crisis ). However, the ITL20 BAU Population model shows that Italy's population stop growing but, after the turn of the Century, returned to the Attractor Path . However, Italy's Economy has a number of systemic problems that are being misdiagnosed as   Economic Collapse  but are actually the result of the Approaching Steady State . Notes You can run the  ITL20 Model  in  R-code  ( here ). For more of my posts see  Blog Roll: Italy ,  the  Boiler Plate  and the I...