Demographic Collapse in Italy? Or, Steady State?



A recent article in the UK Express (here) warned that Italy is facing a Demographic Collapse that may lead to Economic Collapse and eventually Societal Collapse. The video above explains some of the factors at work and can be summarized in a directed graph:




The video argues that (1) economic conditions are not created enough jobs to justify family formation and (2) Policy measures design to restrict migration to Italy (the 2105 European Migrant Crisis).



However, the ITL20 BAU Population model shows that Italy's population stop growing but, after the turn of the Century, returned to the Attractor Path.


However, Italy's Economy has a number of systemic problems that are being misdiagnosed as  Economic Collapse but are actually the result of the Approaching Steady State.


Notes

You can run the ITL20 Model in R-code (here). For more of my posts see Blog Roll: Italy, the Boiler Plate and the Introduction to State Space Models.

Links


ITL20 Population Model


The ITL20 BAU Population model is stable and expected to reach steady state after 2100 (graphic above).





 


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