A Steady State Economy for Israel
J. Mirisch has recently written an article titled Israel: A Blind Spot for Steady Staters that points out the contradictions in the the Right- and Left-Wing positions on Israel. The Right-Wing should support "conservative" approaches to Planetary Boundaries, but they do not. The Left-Wing recognizes Planetary Boundaries but supports unstable, endless growth.
The Contradiction here results from the need for unending exponential growth to support the Endless War in Middle East.
Moreover, Google AI Notes that key aspects of this ongoing cycle include:
- The Nature of the Conflict: Since 1990, U.S. involvement has shifted from short-term operations to prolonged engagements, often resembling wars of attrition rather than quick interventions, notes Brookings.
- Recent Escalations: As of March 2026, potential conflicts with Iran, including strikes on infrastructure, risks trapping the U.S. in a long-term "forever war" similar to Russia's experience in Ukraine.
- Causes of Persistence: Conflicts often last due to poor planning, failure to create stability, and the influence of the military-industrial-congressional complex.
- Costs: Over two decades of fighting in the Middle East and Africa have cost over 4,500 American troop lives and more than trillion.
- Regional Dynamics: The ongoing conflict involves alliances and rivalries among nations like Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Israel, which can drag the U.S. deeper into regional disputes, says The New York Times.
Despite political promises to end these conflicts, they tend to persist, causing intense public debate over U.S. foreign policy and the strategic wisdom of continued intervention.
Personally, I do not expect an end to the unstable Cycle in my lifetime. However, the possibility of stability keeps motivating Peace Efforts that are part of the cycle.
Notes
J. Mirisch (2025) Israel: A Blind Spot for Steady Staters.
J. Rockstrom (2026) Planetary Boundaries.
More:
- Abraham Accords a set of agreements that established diplomatic normalization between Israel and several Arab states, beginning with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain.
- Oslo Accords a pair of interim agreements between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO): the Oslo I Accord, signed in Washington, D.C., in 1993;[1] and the Oslo II Accord, signed in Taba, Egypt, in 1995.
- Israel-Egypt Peace Treaty following the 1978 Camp David Accords, the Egypt–Israel treaty was signed by Anwar Sadat, President of Egypt, and Menachem Begin, Prime Minister of Israel, and witnessed by Jimmy Carter, President of the United States.
- Israel-Jordan Peace Treaty an agreement that ended the state of war that had existed between the two countries since the 1948 Arab–Israeli War and established mutual diplomatic relations.
- Gaza Peace Plan a multilateral agreement between Israel and Hamas that aims to address the ongoing Gaza war and broader Middle Eastern crisis.
- Two-State Solution a proposed approach to resolving the Israeli–Palestinian conflict, by creating two states on the territory of the former Mandatory Palestine.
- Arab-Israel Normalization since the 1970s, a parallel effort to find terms upon which peace can be agreed to in the Arab–Israeli conflict and also specifically the Israeli–Palestinian conflict.
IL1 AIC Statistics
The AIC Statistics for the step-ahead models are presented above. There is a lot of overlap in the models.
IL BAU Model
The BAU Model is unstable and cyclical.
IL_L20 BAU Model Controlled
The stabilized BAU model remains cyclical but reaches a steady state around 2150 (see Below)
The historical time plot of the BAU Model is presented above and shows the cyclical components (IL2 and IL3) peaking around 1990 after the first Intafada.
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