World-System Collapse Theory



The video above describes the Growth-and-Collapse prediction from the The Limits to Growth model (based on ten data point calibrations**):


The WL203 Model baed on data from 50 time points and 14 indicator variables (see below) makes similar projections.

W1=(Growth-LP) is the Growth-Living Planet Controller. W2=(LP=P.Wheat+OIL-TEMP) is the Global Temperature Controller. W3=(P.Oil.+P.Wheat.-OIL-EF) is the Ecological Footprint Controller.

Notes

** The ten data points are 5 initial conditions and 5 "normal" parameters e.g., q(t*) = Q(t*) / N(t*). The rest of the functional forms (calculated from graphs) are guesstimated.

You can experiment with the WL203 Model here. You can experiment with the World1 Limits to Growth Model here (this is a State Space Dynamic Components version of the model). For more information about data sources and how the State Space models were constructed, see the Boiler Plate.

WL203 Measurement Model



WL203 System Matrix




Wikipedia Links

The Club of Rome a nonprofit, informal organization of intellectuals and business leaders whose goal is a critical discussion of pressing global issues.

The Limits to Growth a 1972 report that discussed the possibility of exponential economic and population growth with a finite supply of resources, studied by computer simulation.

References

The Limits to Growth Digital Scan of the book.

World Dynamics Digital Scan of the book.

Harrington, Gaya (2022) Five Insights for Avoiding Global Collapse (free pdf book).

 

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