Posts

UKL20: Can Policy Actions Destabilize the SocioEconomic System?

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  Typically, when commentators talk about Policy Actions such as the UK Climate Change Act of 2008 , the assumption seems to be that governments will never do enough and that the more aggressive the policy targets the better . Seldom are the effects on the political-economic system taken into consideration and seldom is consideration given to stabilizing the political-economic system before policy measures are enacted. In the graphic above, I have plotted two forecasts for UK1  (the dominant state variable in the UKL20 BAU Model ). The top graphic shows system collapse in the Business-As-Usual ( BAU )  model  which, as estimated from the World Development Indicators , is unstable. The lower graphic shows the stabilized version of the BAU model reaching a steady-state after 2046 (the model is stabilized by reducing growth rates). My next question is whether the  Climate Change Act of 2008  destabilized the system. In the Notes below, I present the U...

Steady-State Economy: Political Philosophy

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In a prior post ( here ), I commented that the Political Philosophy of a Steady-State Economy  "remained to be worked out". What I mean by the comment is that when we work through all the popular political philosophies (see table in the Notes below) and end up at  Steady-State Economy  and General Systems Philosophy , we start to run into some contradictions. The graphic above summarizes the problem (there are actually six growth modes that contain the three above--see below). We know the history of Societal Collapse , it has happened before and is obviously not sustainable. We also hypothesize that unstable exponential growth will eventually reach limits on a Finite Planet (the Limits to Growth ) and create living conditions that are not sustainable. Growth Limits, however, are a hypothesis that can't be proven until it is too late. From General Systems Theory  we know that the only way to create a  Steady-State Economy  is by reducing growth rates and ...

Steady-State Economy: Venezuela

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  Notes Wikipedia Crisis in Venezuela   An ongoing socioeconomic and political crisis began in  Venezuela  during the presidency of  Hugo Chávez  and worsened under his successor  Nicolás Maduro . It has been marked by  hyperinflation , starvation, [ 57 ]  disease, crime, and mortality rates, resulting in  massive emigration . [ 58 ]  Food shortages and hyperinflation have ended, but inflation remains high. It is the worst economic crisis in Venezuela's history and considered more severe than the  Great Depression in the United States Economy of Venezuela   a  developing   socialist  economy strongly dependent on its natural resources. Its economic growth is closely linked to  petroleum ,   as the country holds the largest crude oil supply in the world.  Venezuela was historically among the wealthiest economies in South America, particularly from the 1950s to 1980s. Hyperinflation in Venezuela...

Stabilizing the Export Controller: Switzerland (1950-2000+)

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  In an earlier post, Steady State Economy for Switzerland ,  You can run both positive and negqtive shocks to the  CH_LM  (Late Modern) model   on my Google Site. Notes The best forecast (using the  Akaike Information Criterion ) is the  CH_LM  (Late Modern) model driven by Western Europe (the dashed red line in the graphic above, state-space model presented below). Notes Wikipedia Links Economy of Switzerland   a  highly developed   free-market economy . The Swiss economy has ranked first in the world since 2015 on the  Global Innovation Index  and third in the 2020  Global Competitiveness Report .  According to  United Nations  data for 2016, it is the third richest  landlocked country  in the world after  Liechtenstein  and  Luxembourg . Politics of Switzerland   a  federal state  with  representative democracy . History of Switzerland   t he  ...

Steady State Economy for Switzerland

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  June 14, 2026 Switzerland Rejects Measure to Cap Its Population at 10 Million  NY Times.  The referendum was about limiting migration after the number of residents rose by more than a quarter since 2000, but it was framed around affordability and sustainability. Notes The best forecast (using the  Akaike Information Criterion ) is the  CH_LM  (Late Modern) model driven by Western Europe (the dashed red line in the graphic above, state-space model presented below). Notes Wikipedia Links Economy of Switzerland   a  highly developed   free-market economy . The Swiss economy has ranked first in the world since 2015 on the  Global Innovation Index  and third in the 2020  Global Competitiveness Report .  According to  United Nations  data for 2016, it is the third richest  landlocked country  in the world after  Liechtenstein  and  Luxembourg . Politics of Switzerland   a  federal s...