Steady State Economy for Canada?
Notes Wikipedia Links CAL20 Measurement Model CAL20 AIC Statistics CAL20 BAU Model CAL20 BAU Model Growth Shocks
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Steady State Economy for Switzerland
June 14, 2026 Switzerland Rejects Measure to Cap Its Population at 10 Million NY Times. The referendum was about limiting migration after the number of residents rose by more than a quarter since 2000, but it was framed around affordability and sustainability. Notes The best forecast (using the Akaike Information Criterion ) is the CH_LM (Late Modern) model driven by Western Europe (the dashed red line in the graphic above, state-space model presented below). Notes Wikipedia Links Economy of Switzerland a highly developed free-market economy . The Swiss economy has ranked first in the world since 2015 on the Global Innovation Index and third in the 2020 Global Competitiveness Report . According to United Nations data for 2016, it is the third richest landlocked country in the world after Liechtenstein and Luxembourg . Politics of Switzerland a federal s...
A Steady State Economy for Italy
Italy has been called The Sick Man of Europe simply because growth is slowing. The name-calling is based on the assumption that economies are supposed to grow forever. In a finite planet, the assumption is unreasonable. From the IT_L20 Model , Italy is forecast to be approaching a Steady State Economy after 2045 (see the graphic above). Why is this happening and is it a Success or a Failure ? The simplest answer is that overall growth rates for the IT_L20 Model are stable (Largest eigenvalue < 1.0--see below). A stable economy will always reach a steady state. If the historical controllers are also stable (and they are in Italy), then the steady state can be maintained indefinitely. However, the relationships between the indicators in the historical controllers are quite complicated and will be a challenge for Italian politics. Consider the following expansion of the Kaya Identity as a Directed Graph : There are lots of questionable effects within the mo...
Steady State or Growth-and-Collapse in the Middle East North Africa?
The WL20R MEA BAU model ** is unstable (see the Eigenvalues in the Notes Below). This should not be surprising given the History of the Middle East . If we turn the Unemployment Controller ( MEA2 , see the Notes Below) into a Random Walk ( RW , F[2,2] = 1.0), we create the Growth-and-Collapse Mode above. As a practical matter, Growth-and-Collapse could happen as a result of depleting Energy supplies and it would leave the MEA countries searching for new ways to support their economies. Creating a Steady State Economy in the Middle East would require (in the WL20R MEA BAU model ) reducing both Overall Growth rate ( MEA1 ) and the unstable Unemployment-Energy Controller ( MEA2 ). In terms of the WL20R MEA BAU model, stability would involve setting F[2,2] = F[3,3] = 0.98 in the System Matrix (see the Notes below). Stability produces the graphic above. You can run the WL20R MEA BAU model with stability changes suggested in the code ( here )....
