When, How and Why Societies Collapase

This page is UNDER CONSTRUCTION but you can watch the video above until it is complete.

I have a few interests in Societal collapse and Complexity: (1) How does it relate to the possibility of a Steady-State Economy? (2) How does it relate to System Instability? (3) How does it relate to World-Systems Theory? (4) How does it relate to Hegemonic Stability Theory and Geopolitics in general? (5) How does it appear in the structure of Systems Models? (6) etc., etc. The video above is a great introduction to my interests.

You can run the W_MA BAU Model on my Google Site here.

Notes

• Medieval Technology the technology used in medieval Europe under Christian rule. After the Renaissance of the 12th century, medieval Europe saw a radical change in the rate of new inventions, innovations in the ways of managing traditional means of production, and economic growth. The period saw major technological advances, including the adoption of gunpowder, the invention of vertical windmills, spectacles, mechanical clocks, and greatly improved water mills, building techniques (Gothic architecture, medieval castles), and agriculture in general (three-field crop rotation).
• Unified Growth Theory Explores the evolution of societies across the entire span of human history. The theory suggests that forces operating in the distant past have shaped the growth process and determined the differential timing of transitions from stagnation to growth across the globe. For most of human history, technological progress expanded population size but had little effect on living standards. 

References 

• Strumsky, Deborah; Lobo, José; Tainter, Joseph A. (2010–09). "Complexity and the productivity of innovation". Systems Research and Behavioral Science. 27 (5): 496–509. doi:10.1002/sres.1057. ISSN 1092-7026
• Tainter, Joseph (1988). The Collapse of Complex Societies. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-0-521-38673-9.
• Tainter, Joseph A.; Patzek, Tadeusz W. (18 September 2011). Drilling Down: The Gulf Oil Debacle and Our Energy Dilemma. Springer Science & Business Media. ISBN 978-1-4419-7677-2.

Wikipedia Links

• Joseph Tainter Tainter studied anthropology at the University of California, Berkeley and Northwestern University, where he received his Ph.D. in 1975. As of 2012 he holds a professorship in the Department of Environment and Society at Utah State University. His previous positions include Project Leader of Cultural Heritage Research, Rocky Mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, Albuquerque, New Mexico and assistant professor of anthropology at the University of New Mexico.
• Complexity the behavior of a system or model whose components interact in multiple ways and follow local rules, leading to non-linearity, randomness, collective dynamics, hierarchy, and emergence.
• Societal collapse The fall of a complex human society characterized by the loss of cultural identity and of social complexity as an adaptive system, the downfall of government, and the rise of violence. Possible causes of a societal collapse include natural disasters, war, pestilence, famine, economic collapse, population decline or overshoot, incompetent leaders, and sabotage by rival civilizations.^[2] A collapsed society may revert to a more primitive state, be absorbed into a stronger society, or completely disappear.
• Collapsology neologisms used to designate the transdisciplinary study of the risks of collapse of industrial civilization. It is concerned with the general collapse of societies induced by climate change, as well as "scarcity of resources, vast extinctions, and natural disasters."
• State collapse the catastrophic breakdown of a sovereign state's institutional apparatus, resulting in the inability to sustain a monopoly on the legitimate use of force.
• Wicked problem In planning and policy, a wicked problem is a problem that is difficult or impossible to solve because of incomplete, contradictory, and changing requirements that are often difficult to recognize. It refers to an idea or problem that cannot be fixed, where there is no single solution to the problem; "wicked" does not indicate evil, but rather resistance to resolution.
• How Do You Know When Society Is About to Fall Apart? New York Times Magazine, November 4, 2020.
• Collapse of Complex Societies on YouTube, read by Joseph Tainter, videos 1 of 7
• Archaeology, History and Sustainabilityaudio commentary by Joseph Tainter
• Societal Complexity and CollapseOmega Tau audio interview with Joseph Tainter recorded October 2015

 W_MA Measurement Matrix

The W_MA Measurement Model has three dynamic Components that explain 100% of the variance in the indicators: (1) WMA1 = (T - Q - N) A Temperature-Growth Controller.  (2) WMA2 = (Overall Growth). (3) (Q-N) A Malthusian Population Controller.

Comment: The Malthusian Controller explains very little variance, contrary to the assumptions of Unified Growth Theory.

W_MA BAU Model

The W_MA BAU Model is unstable and the Temperature-Growth Controller (T - Q - N) is the source of the instability.

W_MA AIC Statistics

The best Model (both short-term and as an attractor) is the Random Walk (RW) using the Akaike Information Criterion.

Comment: The Random Walk is the best model, contrary to the assumptions of Unified Growth Theory.