World-System (1800-Present) Western Europe Growth and Collapse

 


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Steady State Economy for Germany?

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  Jun 1, 2026  Germany Has Lost What It Did Best  Pro-growth handwringing. The IMF ( here ) among other commentators ( here ) think that the German economy is in trouble. The conclusions are based on the assumption of  Unlimited Economic Growth . What if the techno-optimist assumption is wrong? What if growth cannot continue forever and our macro-TechnoSocial systems must become  Steady State Economies ? Is there any evidence that any economies are already reaching Steady State and what are the implications, good or bad, if they are? HINT: from the graph above, the Deutsch Empire ( DE ) has been in a steady state since 2010. I'll explain all this in a future post. If you want to experiment yourself with the DEL20 systems model, you run it on line and experiment with coefficients  here . Notice that the two  error correcting controllers  in the Measurement Matrix are ( EF-GDP ), the  Ecological Footprint  compared to aggregate production ...
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A Steady State Economy for Israel

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  J. Mirisch has recently written an article titled   Israel: A Blind Spot for Steady Staters  that points out the contradictions in the the Right- and Left-Wing positions on Israel. The Right-Wing should support "conservative" approaches to Planetary Boundaries , but they do not. The Left-Wing recognizes  Planetary Boundaries   but supports unstable, endless growth. The Contradiction here results from the need for unending exponential growth to support the Endless War in Middle East. Moreover, Google AI Notes that k ey aspects of this ongoing cycle include: The Nature of the Conflict:  Since 1990, U.S. involvement has shifted from short-term operations to prolonged engagements, often resembling wars of attrition rather than quick interventions, notes  Brookings . Recent Escalations:  As of March 2026, potential conflicts with Iran, including strikes on infrastructure, risks trapping the U.S. in a long-term "forever war" similar to Russ...
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Steady State or Growth-and-Collapse in the Middle East North Africa?

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  The WL20R MEA BAU model ** is unstable (see the Eigenvalues in the Notes Below). This should not be surprising given the History of the Middle East . If we turn the Unemployment Controller ( MEA2 , see the Notes Below) into a Random Walk ( RW , F[2,2] = 1.0), we create the Growth-and-Collapse Mode above. As a practical matter, Growth-and-Collapse could happen as a result of depleting Energy supplies and it would leave the MEA countries searching for new ways to support their economies. Creating a Steady State Economy in the Middle East would require (in the  WL20R MEA BAU model ) reducing both Overall Growth rate ( MEA1 ) and the unstable Unemployment-Energy Controller ( MEA2 ). In terms of the  WL20R MEA BAU  model, stability would involve setting F[2,2] = F[3,3] = 0.98 in the System Matrix (see the Notes below). Stability produces the graphic above. You can run the  WL20R MEA BAU model   with stability changes suggested in the code ( here )....
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