World-System Steady State Or Collapse

  Notes IL1 AIC Statistics IL BAU Model IL_L20 BAU Model Controlled

  The WL20R MEA BAU model ** is unstable (see the Eigenvalues in the Notes Below). This should not be surprising given the History of the Middle East . If we turn the Unemployment Controller ( MEA2 , see the Notes Below) into a Random Walk ( RW , F[2,2] = 1.0), we create the Growth-and-Collapse Mode above. As a practical matter, Growth-and-Collapse could happen as a result of depleting Energy supplies and it would leave the MEA countries searching for new ways to support their economies. Creating a Steady State Economy in the Middle East would require (in the  WL20R MEA BAU model ) reducing both Overall Growth rate ( MEA1 ) and the unstable Unemployment-Energy Controller ( MEA2 ). In terms of the  WL20R MEA BAU  model, stability would involve setting F[2,2] = F[3,3] = 0.98 in the System Matrix (see the Notes below). Stability produces the graphic above. You can run the  WL20R MEA BAU model   with stability changes suggested in the code ( here )....